Understanding the spreading patterns of COVID-19 in UK and its impact on exit strategies

Nekovee, Maziar (2020) Understanding the spreading patterns of COVID-19 in UK and its impact on exit strategies. Lancet. ISSN 0140-6736 (Submitted)

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Abstract

Prior to lockdown the spread of COVID-19 in UK is found to be exponential, with an exponent α=0.207. In case of COVID-19 this spreading behaviour is quantitatively better described with a mobility-driven SIR-SEIR model [2] rather than the homogenous mixing models. Lockdown has dramatically slowed down the spread of COVID19 in UK, and even more significantly, has changed the growth in the total number of infected from exponential to quadratic and subsequently linear growth. This significant change is due to a transition from a mobilitydriven epidemic spreading to a spatial epidemic which is dominated by slow growth of spatially isolated clusters of infected population. Our results strongly indicate that, to avoid a return to exponential growth of COVID-19 (also known as “second wave”), mobility restrictions should not be prematurely lifted. Instead mobility should be kept restricted while new measures, such as wearing of masks and contact tracing and isolation, get implemented in order to prevent health services becoming overwhelmed due to a resurgence of exponential growth.

Item Type: Article
Schools and Departments: School of Engineering and Informatics > Engineering and Design
SWORD Depositor: Mx Elements Account
Depositing User: Mx Elements Account
Date Deposited: 27 May 2020 07:34
Last Modified: 27 May 2020 07:45
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/91387

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