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An empirical, Bayesian approach to modelling crop yield: Maize in USA

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Version 2 2023-06-12, 09:17
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posted on 2023-06-12, 09:17 authored by Raphael Shirley, Edward Pope, Myles Bartlett, Seb OliverSeb Oliver, Novi QuadriantoNovi Quadrianto, Pete Hurley, Steven Duivenvoorden, Phil Rooney, Adam B Barrett, Chris Kent, James Bacon
We apply an empirical, data-driven approach for describing crop yield as a function of monthly temperature and precipitation by employing generative probabilistic models with parameters determined through Bayesian inference. Our approach is applied to state-scale maize yield and meteorological data for the US Corn Belt from 1981 to 2014 as an exemplar, but would be readily transferable to other crops, locations and spatial scales. Experimentation with a number of models shows that maize growth rates can be characterised by a two-dimensional Gaussian function of temperature and precipitation with monthly contributions accumulated over the growing period. This approach accounts for non-linear growth responses to the individual meteorological variables, and allows for interactions between them. Our models correctly identify that temperature and precipitation have the largest impact on yield in the six months prior to the harvest, in agreement with the typical growing season for US maize (April to September). Maximal growth rates occur for monthly mean temperature 18 °C–19 °C, corresponding to a daily maximum temperature of 24 °C–25 °C (in broad agreement with previous work) and monthly total precipitation 115 mm. Our approach also provides a self-consistent way of investigating climate change impacts on current US maize varieties in the absence of adaptation measures. Keeping precipitation and growing area fixed, a temperature increase of 2 °C, relative to 1981–2014, results in the mean yield decreasing by 8%, while the yield variance increases by a factor of around 3. We thus provide a flexible, data-driven framework for exploring the impacts of natural climate variability and climate change on globally significant crops based on their observed behaviour. In concert with other approaches, this can help inform the development of adaptation strategies that will ensure food security under a changing climate.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Published version

Journal

Environmental Research Communications

ISSN

2515-7620

Publisher

IOP Publishing

Issue

2

Volume

2

Page range

1-31

Department affiliated with

  • Informatics Publications

Full text available

  • No

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2020-01-08

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2020-01-30

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2020-01-07

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