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Estimating Potential Incidence of MERS-CoV Associated with Hajj Pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, 2014 – PLOS Currents Outbreaks.pdf (307.62 kB)

Estimating potential incidence of MERS-CoV associated with Hajj pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, 2014

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posted on 2023-06-09, 14:37 authored by Justin Lessler, Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer, Derek A T Cummings, Tini Garske, Maria Van Kerkhove, Harriet Mills, Shaun Truelove, Rafat Hakeem, Ali Albarrak, Neil M Ferguson, Pierre NouvelletPierre Nouvellet
Between March and June 2014 the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) had a large outbreak of MERS-CoV, renewing fears of a major outbreak during the Hajj this October. Using KSA Ministry of Health data, the MERS-CoV Scenario and Modeling Working Group forecast incidence under three scenarios. In the expected incidence scenario, we estimate 6.2 (95% Prediction Interval [PI]: 1-17) pilgrims will develop MERS-CoV symptoms during the Hajj, and 4.0 (95% PI: 0-12) foreign pilgrims will be infected but return home before developing symptoms. In the most pessimistic scenario, 47.6 (95% PI: 32-66) cases will develop symptoms during the Hajj, and 29.0 (95% PI: 17-43) will be infected but return home asymptomatic. Large numbers of MERS-CoV cases are unlikely to occur during the 2014 Hajj even under pessimistic assumptions, but careful monitoring is still needed to detect possible mass infection events and minimize introductions into other countries.

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Publication status

  • Published

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  • Published version

Journal

PLoS Currents

ISSN

2157-3999

Publisher

Public Library of Science

Department affiliated with

  • Evolution, Behaviour and Environment Publications

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2018-08-17

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2018-08-17

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2018-08-16

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