UMFULA - Climate variability impacts WEF infrastructure EA - 2021 - Copy.pdf (6.98 MB)
Climate variability affects water-energy-food infrastructure performance in East Africa
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-09, 23:22 authored by Christian Siderius, Seshu Kolusu, Martin ToddMartin Todd, Ajay Bhave, Andy J Dougill, Chris C J Reason, David D Mkwambisi, Japhet J Kashaigili, Joanna Pardoe, Julien J Harou, Katharine Vincent, Neil C G Hart, Rachel James, Richard Washington, Robel T Geressu, Declan ConwayThe need to assess major infrastructure performance under a changing climate is widely recognized yet rarely practiced, particularly in rapidly growing African economies. Here, we consider high-stakes investments across the water, energy, and food sectors for two major river basins in a climate transition zone in Africa. We integrate detailed interpretation of observed and modeled climate-system behavior with hydrological modeling and decision-relevant performance metrics. For the Rufiji River in Tanzania, projected risks for the mid-21st century are similar to those of the present day, but for the Lake Malawi-Shire River, future risk exceeds that experienced during the 20th century. In both basins a repeat of an early-20th century multi-year drought would challenge the viability of proposed infrastructure. A long view, which emphasizes past and future changes in variability, set within a broader context of climate-information interpretation and decision making, is crucial for screening the risk to infrastructure.
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Publication status
- Published
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- Published version
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One EarthISSN
2590-3322Publisher
Cell PressExternal DOI
Page range
1-14Department affiliated with
- Geography Publications
Full text available
- Yes
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2021-03-19First Open Access (FOA) Date
2021-03-19First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2021-03-19Usage metrics
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