Siderius2021_Chapter_HighStakesDecisionsUnderUncert.pdf (2.15 MB)
High stakes decisions under uncertainty: dams, development and climate change in the Rufiji river basin
chapter
posted on 2023-06-09, 23:22 authored by Christian Siderius, Robel Geressu, Martin ToddMartin Todd, Seshagiri Rao Kolusu, Julien J Harou, Japhet J Kashaigili, Declan ConwayThe need to stress test designs and decisions about major infrastructure under climate change conditions is increasingly being recognised. This chapter explores new ways to understand and—if possible—reduce the uncertainty in climate information to enable its use in assessing decisions that have consequences across the water, energy, food and environment sectors. It outlines an approach, applied in the Rufiji River Basin in Tanzania, that addresses uncertainty in climate model projections by weighting them according to different skill metrics; how well the models simulate important climate features. The impact of different weighting approaches on two river basin performance indicators (hydropower generation and environmental flows) is assessed, providing an indication of the reliability of infrastructure investments, including a major proposed dam under different climate model projections. The chapter ends with a reflection on the operational context for applying such approaches and some of the steps taken to address challenges and to engage stakeholders.
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Publication status
- Published
File Version
- Published version
Publisher
Palgrave MacmillanExternal DOI
Page range
93-113Pages
168.0Book title
Climate risk in Africa: adaptation and resiliencePlace of publication
ChamISBN
9783030611590Department affiliated with
- Geography Publications
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Open Access bookFull text available
- Yes
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Editors
Declan Conway, Katharine VincentLegacy Posted Date
2021-03-17First Open Access (FOA) Date
2021-03-17First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2021-03-17Usage metrics
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