High stakes decisions under uncertainty: dams, development and climate change in the Rufiji river basin

Siderius, Christian, Geressu, Robel, Todd, Martin C, Kolusu, Seshagiri Rao, Harou, Julien J, Kashaigili, Japhet J and Conway, Declan (2021) High stakes decisions under uncertainty: dams, development and climate change in the Rufiji river basin. In: Conway, Declan and Vincent, Katharine (eds.) Climate risk in Africa: adaptation and resilience. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, pp. 93-113. ISBN 9783030611590

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The need to stress test designs and decisions about major infrastructure under climate change conditions is increasingly being recognised. This chapter explores new ways to understand and—if possible—reduce the uncertainty in climate information to enable its use in assessing decisions that have consequences across the water, energy, food and environment sectors. It outlines an approach, applied in the Rufiji River Basin in Tanzania, that addresses uncertainty in climate model projections by weighting them according to different skill metrics; how well the models simulate important climate features. The impact of different weighting approaches on two river basin performance indicators (hydropower generation and environmental flows) is assessed, providing an indication of the reliability of infrastructure investments, including a major proposed dam under different climate model projections. The chapter ends with a reflection on the operational context for applying such approaches and some of the steps taken to address challenges and to engage stakeholders.

Item Type: Book Section
Additional Information: Open Access book
Keywords: Science
Schools and Departments: School of Global Studies > Geography
SWORD Depositor: Mx Elements Account
Depositing User: Mx Elements Account
Date Deposited: 17 Mar 2021 12:15
Last Modified: 17 Mar 2021 12:15
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/97859

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