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Optimal timing of one-shot interventions for epidemic control

journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-09, 23:03 authored by Francesco Di Lauro, Istvan Kiss, Joel C Miller
The interventions and outcomes in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic are highly varied. The disease and the interventions both impose costs and harm on society. Some interventions with particularly high costs may only be implemented briefly. The design of optimal policy requires consideration of many intervention scenarios. In this paper we investigate the optimal timing of interventions that are not sustainable for a long period. Specifically, we look at at the impact of a single short-term non-repeated intervention (a “one-shot intervention”) on an epidemic and consider the impact of the intervention’s timing. To minimize the total number infected, the intervention should start close to the peak so that there is minimal rebound once the intervention is stopped. To minimise the peak prevalence, it should start earlier, leading to initial reduction and then having a rebound to the same prevalence as the pre-intervention peak rather than one very large peak. To delay infections as much as possible (as might be appropriate if we expect improved interventions or treatments to be developed), earlier interventions have clear benefit. In populations with distinct subgroups, synchronized interventions are less effective than targeting the interventions in each subcommunity separately.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Accepted version

Journal

PLoS Computational Biology

ISSN

1553-734X

Publisher

Public Library of Science

Issue

3

Volume

17

Page range

1-24

Article number

a1008763

Department affiliated with

  • Mathematics Publications

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2021-02-12

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2021-03-23

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2021-02-12

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