Spatial analysis of the impact of urban geometry and socio-demographic characteristics on COVID-19, a study in Hong Kong

The World Health Organization considered the widespread of COVID-19 over the world as a pandemic. There is still a lack of understanding of its origin, transmission, and treatment methods. Understanding the influencing factors of the COVID-19 can help mitigate its spread, but little research on the spatial factors has been conducted. Therefore, this study explores the effects of urban geometry and socio-demographic factors on the COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong. For each patient, the places they visited during the incubation period before going to hospital were identified, and matched with corresponding attributes of urban geometry (i.e., building geometry, road network, greenspace) and socio-demographic factors (i.e., demographic, educational, economic, household and housing characteristics) based on the coordinates. The local cases were then compared with the imported cases using the stepwise logistic regression, the logistic regression with case-control of time, and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to identify factors influencing local disease transmission. Results show that the building geometry, road network and certain socio-economic characteristics are significantly associated with COVID-19 cases. In addition, the results indicate that urban geometry is playing a more important role than the socio-demographic characteristics in affecting the COVID-19 incidences. These findings provide a useful reference to the government and the general public as to the spatial vulnerability of the COVID-19 transmission and to take appropriate preventive measures in high-risk areas.