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Regime cycles and political change in African autocracies

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journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-09, 22:03 authored by Andrea Carboni, Clionadh RaleighClionadh Raleigh
This article applies a regime cycle framework to understand patterns of change and continuity in African competitive autocracies. We observe that regime change in African autocracies is rarely the result of actions carried out by rebels, opposition leaders or popular masses substantially altering the structure of power. Instead, they are more frequently carried out by senior regime cadres, resulting in controlled reshuffles of power. We argue that such regime shifts are best explained through a cyclical logic of elite collective action consisting of accommodation and consolidation, and ultimately leading to fragmentation and crisis. These dynamics indicate the stage of leader-elite relationships at a given time, and suggest when regimes may likely expand, contract, purge and fracture. We argue that, by acknowledging in which stage of the cycle a regime and its senior elites are dominant, we can gauge the likelihood as well as the potential success of a regime change. Our framework is finally applied to understand recent regime shifts in competitive autocracies across Africa.

Funding

VERSUS - Violence Elites and resilience in states under stress; G2187; EUROPEAN UNION; 726504

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Published version

Journal

Journal of Modern African Studies

ISSN

0022-278X

Publisher

Cambridge University Press

Issue

4

Volume

59

Page range

415-437

Department affiliated with

  • Geography Publications

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2021-07-26

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2021-12-07

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2021-12-07

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