Chan et al. 2019_accepted.pdf (2.71 MB)
Uncertainty assessment in river flow projections for Ethiopia’s Upper Awash Basin using multiple GCMs and hydrological models
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-07, 07:42 authored by Wilson C H Chan, Julian R Thompson, Richard G Taylor, Alistair E Nay, Tenalem Ayenew, Alan M MacDonald, Martin ToddMartin ToddUncertainty in climate change impacts on river discharge in the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia, is assessed using five MIKE SHE hydrological models, six CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios for the period 2071–2100. Hydrological models vary in their spatial distribution and process representations of unsaturated and saturated zones. Very good performance is achieved for 1975–1999 (NSE: 0.65–0.8; r: 0.79–0.93). GCM-related uncertainty dominates variability in projections of high and mean discharges (mean: –34% to +55% for RCP4.5, – 2% to +195% for RCP8.5). Although GCMs dominate uncertainty in projected low flows, inter-hydrological model uncertainty is considerable (RCP4.5: –60% to +228%, RCP8.5: –86% to +337%). Analysis of variance uncertainty attribution reveals that GCM-related uncertainty occupies, on average, 68% of total uncertainty for median and high flows and hydrological models no more than 1%. For low flows, hydrological model uncertainty occupies, on average, 18% of total uncertainty; GCM-related uncertainty remains substantial (average: 28%).
History
Publication status
- Published
File Version
- Accepted version
Journal
Hydrological Sciences JournalISSN
0262-6667Publisher
International Association of Hydrological SciencesExternal DOI
Page range
1-18Department affiliated with
- Geography Publications
Research groups affiliated with
- climate@sussex Publications
Full text available
- Yes
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2020-08-06First Open Access (FOA) Date
2021-06-10First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2020-08-05Usage metrics
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