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Resource discovery and the political fortunes of national leaders
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-07, 07:02 authored by Sambit BhattacharyyaSambit Bhattacharyya, Michael KellerWe investigate the causal effects of ‘giant and first’ oil and mineral discoveries on the political fortunes of national leaders using a large dataset of 1255 leaders in 158 countries over the period 1950 to 2010 in ‘single risk’ and ‘multiple risk’ discrete time proportional hazard models. We find that mineral discoveries reduce risk for the incumbent in a ‘single risk model’ especially in a non-election year. In contrast oil discoveries reduce risk disproportionately more in countries with weak political institutions. The effects appear to be induced by resource income rather than expectations. In a ‘multiple risk model’ oil discovery significantly reduces the risk of departure via military coup while resource discovery reduces the risk of resignation. Resource discovery does not seem to affect the risk of election loss. Non-resource tax and military expenditure appears to be two potent mechanisms through which oil discovery affects political survival.
History
Publication status
- Published
File Version
- Accepted version
Journal
EconomicaISSN
0013-0427Publisher
WileyExternal DOI
Issue
349Volume
88Page range
129-166Department affiliated with
- Economics Publications
Full text available
- Yes
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2020-05-19First Open Access (FOA) Date
2022-06-25First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2020-05-18Usage metrics
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