Resource discovery and the political fortunes of national leaders

Bhattacharyya, Sambit and Keller, Michael (2021) Resource discovery and the political fortunes of national leaders. Economica, 88 (349). pp. 129-166. ISSN 0013-0427

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Abstract

We investigate the causal effects of ‘giant and first’ oil and mineral discoveries on the political fortunes of national leaders using a large dataset of 1255 leaders in 158 countries over the period 1950 to 2010 in ‘single risk’ and ‘multiple risk’ discrete time proportional hazard models. We find that mineral discoveries reduce risk for the incumbent in a ‘single risk model’ especially in a non-election year. In contrast oil discoveries reduce risk disproportionately more in countries with weak political institutions. The effects appear to be induced by resource income rather than expectations. In a ‘multiple risk model’ oil discovery significantly reduces the risk of departure via military coup while resource discovery reduces the risk of resignation. Resource discovery does not seem to affect the risk of election loss. Non-resource tax and military expenditure appears to be two potent mechanisms through which oil discovery affects political survival.

Item Type: Article
Schools and Departments: University of Sussex Business School > Economics
SWORD Depositor: Mx Elements Account
Depositing User: Mx Elements Account
Date Deposited: 19 May 2020 08:24
Last Modified: 25 Jun 2022 01:00
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/91301

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