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Resource discovery and the political fortunes of national leaders

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posted on 2023-06-07, 07:02 authored by Sambit BhattacharyyaSambit Bhattacharyya, Michael Keller
We investigate the causal effects of ‘giant and first’ oil and mineral discoveries on the political fortunes of national leaders using a large dataset of 1255 leaders in 158 countries over the period 1950 to 2010 in ‘single risk’ and ‘multiple risk’ discrete time proportional hazard models. We find that mineral discoveries reduce risk for the incumbent in a ‘single risk model’ especially in a non-election year. In contrast oil discoveries reduce risk disproportionately more in countries with weak political institutions. The effects appear to be induced by resource income rather than expectations. In a ‘multiple risk model’ oil discovery significantly reduces the risk of departure via military coup while resource discovery reduces the risk of resignation. Resource discovery does not seem to affect the risk of election loss. Non-resource tax and military expenditure appears to be two potent mechanisms through which oil discovery affects political survival.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Accepted version

Journal

Economica

ISSN

0013-0427

Publisher

Wiley

Issue

349

Volume

88

Page range

129-166

Department affiliated with

  • Economics Publications

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2020-05-19

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2022-06-25

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2020-05-18

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