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Overconfidence among young decision-makers: assessing the effectiveness of a video intervention and the role of gender, age, feedback, and repetition

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posted on 2023-06-09, 20:46 authored by Dominik PiehlmaierDominik Piehlmaier
Child development research on overconfidence suggests that the bias is present and persistent in preschoolers and kindergartners. However, little is known about what drives overconfidence among young decision-makers, how it changes over a large number of repetitions, and whether such changes differ by gender or age. The current experimental study analyzes data from 60 children, aged 4 years 0 months to 6 years 10 months, who played 60 turns of the Children's Gambling Task and provided regular estimates on their performance. A video intervention, designed to demonstrate the consequences of disadvantageous choices, was tested in a double-blind randomized controlled trial to assess its impact on overconfidence. The results show that every third participant remained overconfident even after 60 trials and constant feedback. Unlike previously reported, gender seems to be a determining factor in this process. Lastly, providing additional information through a video intervention appears to have no impact on participants' overconfidence levels.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Published version

Journal

Scientific Reports

ISSN

2045-2322

Publisher

Nature Research

Issue

1

Volume

10

Article number

a3984

Pages

3984.0

Department affiliated with

  • Strategy and Marketing Publications

Notes

Unmapped bibliographic data: JO - Scientific Reports [Field not mapped to EPrints]

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2020-03-05

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2020-03-05

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2020-03-05

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