Projections of multi-morbidity in the older population in England to 2035 estimates from the Population Ageing and Care Simu.pdf (200.68 kB)
Projections of multi-morbidity in the older population in England to 2035: estimates from the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) model
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-09, 20:28 authored by Andrew Kingston, Louise Robinson, Heather Booth, Martin Knapp, Carol Jagger, MODEM project, Bayo Adelaja, Mauricio Avendano, Sally-Marie Bamford, Sube Banerjee, Sharne Berwald, Ann Bowling, Clare Burgon, Elizabeth Bustard, Adelina Comas-Herrera, Margaret Dangoor, Josie Dixon, Nicolas Farina, Sally Greengross, Emily Grundy, Bo Hu, Derek King, Daniel Lombard, Klara Lorenz, David McDaid, A-La Park, Jitka Pikhartova, Amritpal Rehill, Raphael WittenbergBackground models projecting future disease burden have focussed on one or two diseases. Little is known on how risk factors of younger cohorts will play out in the future burden of multi-morbidity (two or more concurrent long-term conditions). Design a dynamic microsimulation model, the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) model, simulates the characteristics (sociodemographic factors, health behaviours, chronic diseases and geriatric conditions) of individuals over the period 2014–2040. Population about 303,589 individuals aged 35 years and over (a 1% random sample of the 2014 England population) created from Understanding Society, the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, and the Cognitive Function and Ageing Study II. Main outcome measures the prevalence of, numbers with, and years lived with, chronic diseases, geriatric conditions and multi-morbidity. Results between 2015 and 2035, multi-morbidity prevalence is estimated to increase, the proportion with 4+ diseases almost doubling (2015:9.8%; 2035:17.0%) and two-thirds of those with 4+ diseases will have mental ill-health (dementia, depression, cognitive impairment no dementia). Multi-morbidity prevalence in incoming cohorts aged 65–74 years will rise (2015:45.7%; 2035:52.8%). Life expectancy gains (men 3.6 years, women: 2.9 years) will be spent mostly with 4+ diseases (men: 2.4 years, 65.9%; women: 2.5 years, 85.2%), resulting from increased prevalence of rather than longer survival with multi-morbidity. Conclusions our findings indicate that over the next 20 years there will be an expansion of morbidity, particularly complex multi-morbidity (4+ diseases). We advocate for a new focus on prevention of, and appropriate and efficient service provision for those with, complex multi-morbidity.
History
Publication status
- Published
File Version
- Published version
Journal
Age and AgeingISSN
0002-0729Publisher
Oxford University PressExternal DOI
Issue
3Volume
47Page range
374-380Event location
EnglandDepartment affiliated with
- BSMS Neuroscience Publications
Full text available
- Yes
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2020-01-30First Open Access (FOA) Date
2020-01-30First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2020-01-29Usage metrics
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No categories selectedKeywords
Adult;Age Distribution;Aged;Aged80 and over;Aging;Computer Simulation;Disease Susceptibility;England;Forecasting;Health Services Needs and Demand;Health Services for the Aged;Health Status;Humans;Life Expectancy;Mental Health;ModelsTheoretical;Multimorbidity;Prevalence;Risk Assessment;Risk Factors;Time Factors
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