Crafts, Nicholas and Mills, Terence C (2019) Is the UK productivity slowdown unprecedented? National Institute Economic Review. ISSN 0027-9501 (Accepted)

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Abstract

We estimate trend UK labour productivity growth using a Hodrick-Prescott filter method. We use the results to compare downturns where the economy fell below its pre-existing trend. We find that the current productivity slowdown has resulted in productivity being 19.7% below the pre-2008 trend path in 2018. This is nearly double the previous worst productivity shortfall ten years after the start of a downturn. On this criterion the slowdown is unprecedented in the last 250 years. We conjecture that this reflects a combination of adverse circumstances, namely, a financial crisis, a weakening impact of ICT and impending Brexit.

Item Type:	Article
Schools and Departments:	School of Business, Management and Economics > Economics
Subjects:	H Social Sciences
Depositing User:	Nicholas Crafts
Date Deposited:	06 Jan 2020 16:08
Last Modified:	10 Feb 2020 11:47
URI:	http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/89181

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