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Groundwater storage dynamics in the world's large aquifer systems from GRACE: uncertainty and role of extreme precipitation

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Version 2 2023-06-07, 08:43
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journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-07, 08:43 authored by Mohammad Shamsudduha, Richard G Taylor
Under variable and changing climates groundwater storage sustains vital ecosystems and enables freshwater withdrawals globally for agriculture, drinking water, and industry. Here, we assess recent changes in groundwater storage (?GWS) from 2002 to 2016 in 37 of the world's large aquifer systems using an ensemble of datasets from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and land surface models (LSMs). Ensemble GRACE-derived ?GWS is well reconciled to in situ observations (r=0.62–0.86, p value?<0.001) for two tropical basins with regional piezometric networks and contrasting climate regimes. Trends in GRACE-derived ?GWS are overwhelmingly non-linear; indeed, linear declining trends adequately (R2>0.5, p value?<0.001) explain variability in only two aquifer systems. Non-linearity in ?GWS derives, in part, from the episodic nature of groundwater replenishment associated with extreme annual (>90th percentile, 1901–2016) precipitation and is inconsistent with prevailing narratives of global-scale groundwater depletion at the scale of the GRACE footprint (~200?000?km2). Substantial uncertainty remains in estimates of GRACE-derived ?GWS, evident from 20 realisations presented here, but these data provide a regional context to changes in groundwater storage observed more locally through piezometry.

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Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Published version

Journal

Earth System Dynamics and Discussions

ISSN

2190-4979

Publisher

European Geosciences Union

Issue

3

Volume

11

Page range

755-774

Department affiliated with

  • Geography Publications

Full text available

  • No

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2019-11-21

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2019-11-21

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2019-11-20

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