Uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis of bladed disk statics with material anisotropy and root geometry variations

Monocrystalline blades used in gas turbines exhibit material anisotropy, and the orientation of the anisotropy axis affects the deformation of the bladed disk. Considering the orientation of the anisotropy axis as a random design parameter, the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for static blade deformations are presented for the first time. The following two cases are analyzed using a realistic bladed disk model with friction contacts: (i) deformation of the tuned bladed disks considering the uncertainty in anisotropy orientation and variations in fir tree root geometry and (ii) deformation of mistuned bladed disks with uncertain blade crystal orientations. For efficient uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, the applicability of the following surrogate models are explored: (i) an ensemble of regression trees (random forest) and (ii) gradient-based polynomial chaos expansion. Faster convergence in statistical characteristics has been obtained using a surrogate model compared to that obtained from finite element model based Monte Carlo simulation. From sensitivity analysis, it has been inferred that the uncertainty in static displacements of a blade in a bladed disk is primarily due to the uncertainty in anisotropy angles of that blade itself and secondarily due to the interaction of different blade anisotropy angles.