How do I know what my theory predicts?

Dienes, Zoltan (2019) How do I know what my theory predicts? Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 2 (4). pp. 364-377. ISSN 2515-2459

[img] PDF - Accepted Version
Download (352kB)


To get evidence for or against a theory relative to the null hypothesis, one needs to know what the theory predicts. The amount of evidence can then be quantified by a Bayes factor. Specifying the sizes of the effect one’s theory predicts may not come naturally, but I show some ways of thinking about the problem, some simple heuristics that are often useful when one has little relevant prior information. These heuristics include the room-to-move heuristic (for comparing mean differences), the ratio-of-scales heuristic (for regression slopes), the ratio-of-means heuristic (for regression slopes), the basic-effect heuristic (for analysis of variance effects), and the total-effect heuristic (for mediation analysis).

Item Type: Article
Schools and Departments: School of Psychology > Psychology
Depositing User: Sanjeedah Choudhury
Date Deposited: 20 Aug 2019 10:20
Last Modified: 01 Oct 2020 12:30

View download statistics for this item

📧 Request an update