How do I know what my theory predicts?

Dienes, Zoltan (2019) How do I know what my theory predicts? Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science. pp. 1-14. ISSN 2515-2459

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Abstract

To get evidence for or against a theory relative to the null hypothesis, one needs to know what the theory predicts. The amount of evidence can then be quantified by a Bayes factor. Specifying the sizes of the effect one’s theory predicts may not come naturally, but I show some ways of thinking about the problem, some simple heuristics that are often useful when one has little relevant prior information. These heuristics include the room-to-move heuristic (for comparing mean differences), the ratio-of-scales heuristic (for regression slopes), the ratio-of-means heuristic (for regression slopes), the basic-effect heuristic (for analysis of variance effects), and the total-effect heuristic (for mediation analysis).

Item Type: Article
Schools and Departments: School of Psychology > Psychology
Depositing User: Sanjeedah Choudhury
Date Deposited: 20 Aug 2019 10:20
Last Modified: 22 Nov 2019 12:15
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/85556

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