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How do I know what my theory predicts?

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posted on 2023-06-09, 18:41 authored by Zoltan DienesZoltan Dienes
To get evidence for or against a theory relative to the null hypothesis, one needs to know what the theory predicts. The amount of evidence can then be quantified by a Bayes factor. Specifying the sizes of the effect one’s theory predicts may not come naturally, but I show some ways of thinking about the problem, some simple heuristics that are often useful when one has little relevant prior information. These heuristics include the room-to-move heuristic (for comparing mean differences), the ratio-of-scales heuristic (for regression slopes), the ratio-of-means heuristic (for regression slopes), the basic-effect heuristic (for analysis of variance effects), and the total-effect heuristic (for mediation analysis).

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Accepted version

Journal

Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science

ISSN

2515-2459

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Issue

4

Volume

2

Page range

364-377

Department affiliated with

  • Psychology Publications

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2019-08-20

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2019-08-20

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2019-08-19

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