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How do I know what my theory predicts?
To get evidence for or against a theory relative to the null hypothesis, one needs to know what the theory predicts. The amount of evidence can then be quantified by a Bayes factor. Specifying the sizes of the effect one’s theory predicts may not come naturally, but I show some ways of thinking about the problem, some simple heuristics that are often useful when one has little relevant prior information. These heuristics include the room-to-move heuristic (for comparing mean differences), the ratio-of-scales heuristic (for regression slopes), the ratio-of-means heuristic (for regression slopes), the basic-effect heuristic (for analysis of variance effects), and the total-effect heuristic (for mediation analysis).
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Publication status
- Published
File Version
- Accepted version
Journal
Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological ScienceISSN
2515-2459Publisher
SAGE PublicationsExternal DOI
Issue
4Volume
2Page range
364-377Department affiliated with
- Psychology Publications
Full text available
- Yes
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2019-08-20First Open Access (FOA) Date
2019-08-20First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2019-08-19Usage metrics
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