Three essays on conflict and climate effects in Colombia

In Colombia, it is a common refrain that there is not a single family unaffected by the conflict that marked the country for over half a century. During 2016, with the peace agreement that ended 60 years of fighting with the FARC, the country entered into a postconflict phase. This thesis provides empirical evidence to inform policies designed to foster rural development (especially in places where the livelihoods have been damaged by conflict), protect the environment, and promote sustainable growth in a context of increasing extreme global weather events. In particular, the work is comprised of three empirical essays examining respectively the impact of conflict on (i) agribusiness durations, (ii) deforestation, and (iii) selected crime outcomes. The first essay provides an analysis on agribusiness contract durations, defined as the survival of contractual partnerships between smallholder producer organizations and their commercial buyers, and their relationship with specific manifestations of violence. There is evidence that the presence of violence increases the hazard rate of agribusiness contract commercial failure. In particular, the presence of terrorist events at the start year of the agribusiness contracts registers as the main determinant. In particular, when violent incidents vary over time, the subversive actions, mainly provoked by the guerrillas, emerge as a cause of commercial failure. The second empirical essay offers evidence on the relationship between armed conflict and its environmental impact. There is evidence that the armed conflict is a force for forest protection and growth, though the effect is found to be small. Forest degradation often increases in post-conflict situations. These findings highlight a need for increased protection of Colombia’s forests in the wake of the peace agreement. The third empirical essay investigates the impact of the most recent extreme weather event in Colombia, “La Niña” (between 2010-2011 and named by the local media as the “winter wave”) on theft rates in the municipalities affected. This essay demonstrates that the winter wave brought a decrease in theft from persons. This is perhaps attributable to the emergence of pro-social behaviour in the municipalities most affected. We also find an increase in theft from houses possibly linked to a ‘survival mechanism’. In addition, we also reveal that the presence of conflict discourages theft perhaps due to the establishment of coercive institutions by illegal armed groups.