19-02-07 Version Published in the World Economy.pdf (4.95 MB)
Which manufacturing industries and sectors are most vulnerable to Brexit?
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-09, 16:48 authored by Michael GasiorekMichael Gasiorek, Ilona Serwicka, Alasdair SmithWhen the UK leaves the EU, trade arrangements between the UK and EU will change. Most of the options for future UK-EU relationships currently under discussion imply increased trade barriers, which will reduce trade and also have effects on output and prices. In this paper, we use a multi-market partial equilibrium model to analyse the vulnerability of 122 manufacturing industries to Brexit. In all five Brexit scenarios we model, there is an overall reduction in UK manufacturing output. Output grows in some industries but at the expense of higher consumer and intermediate goods prices. High tech and medium–high tech sectors are more at risk of a decline in domestic production than lower tech sectors. In most areas of the country, demand for high-skilled workers falls more than for medium and low-skilled workers.
History
Publication status
- Published
File Version
- Accepted version
Journal
World EconomyISSN
0378-5920Publisher
WileyExternal DOI
Issue
1Volume
42Page range
21-56Department affiliated with
- Economics Publications
Research groups affiliated with
- UK Trade Policy Observatory Publications
Full text available
- Yes
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2019-02-11First Open Access (FOA) Date
2020-11-28First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2019-02-07Usage metrics
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