Which manufacturing industries and sectors are most vulnerable to Brexit?

Gasiorek, Michael, Serwicka, Ilona and Smith, Alasdair (2019) Which manufacturing industries and sectors are most vulnerable to Brexit? World Economy, 42 (1). pp. 21-56. ISSN 0378-5920

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Abstract

When the UK leaves the EU, trade arrangements between the UK and EU will change. Most of the options for future UK‐EU relationships currently under discussion imply increased trade barriers, which will reduce trade and also have effects on output and prices. In this paper, we use a multi‐market partial equilibrium model to analyse the vulnerability of 122 manufacturing industries to Brexit. In all five Brexit scenarios we model, there is an overall reduction in UK manufacturing output. Output grows in some industries but at the expense of higher consumer and intermediate goods prices. High tech and medium–high tech sectors are more at risk of a decline in domestic production than lower tech sectors. In most areas of the country, demand for high‐skilled workers falls more than for medium and low‐skilled workers.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: international trade, Brexit, European Union, partial equilibrium model, manufacturing
Schools and Departments: School of Business, Management and Economics > Economics
Research Centres and Groups: UK Trade Policy Observatory
Depositing User: Ilona Serwicka
Date Deposited: 11 Feb 2019 12:09
Last Modified: 28 Mar 2019 13:03
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/81839

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