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Court and Fizaine (2017)_Long-term estimates of fossil fuels EROI_Accepted manuscript.pdf (1.17 MB)

Long-term estimates of the Energy-Return-on-Investment (EROI) of coal, oil, and gas global productions

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posted on 2023-06-09, 15:02 authored by Victor Court, Florian Fizaine
We use a price-based methodology to assess the global energy-return-on-investment (EROI) of coal, oil, and gas, from the beginning of their reported production (respectively 1800, 1860, and 1890) to 2012. It appears that the EROI of global oil and gas productions reached their maximum values in the 1930s–40s, respectively around 50:1 and 150:1, and have declined subsequently. Furthermore, we suggest that the EROI of global coal production has not yet reached its maximum value. Based on the original work of Dale et al. (2011), we then present a new theoretical dynamic expression of the EROI. Modifications of the original model were needed in order to perform calibrations on each of our price-based historical estimates of coal, oil, and gas global EROI. Theoretical models replicate the fact that maximum EROIs of global oil and gas productions have both already been reached while this is not the case for coal. In a prospective exercise, the models show the pace of the expected EROIs decrease for oil and gas in the coming century. Regarding coal, models are helpful to estimate the value and date of the EROI peak, which will most likely occur between 2025 and 2045, around a value of 95(± 15):1

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Accepted version

Journal

Ecological Economics

ISSN

0921-8009

Publisher

Elsevier

Volume

138

Page range

145-159

Department affiliated with

  • SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit Publications

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2018-09-13

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2018-09-13

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2018-09-12

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