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Mean-field models for non-Markovian epidemics on networks

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posted on 2023-06-09, 08:16 authored by Neil Sherborne, Joel C Miller, Konstantin BlyussKonstantin Blyuss, Istvan Kiss
This paper introduces a novel extension of the edge-based compartmental model to epidemics where the transmission and recovery processes are driven by general independent probability distributions. Edge-based compartmental modelling is just one of many different approaches used to model the spread of an infectious disease on a network; the major result of this paper is the rigorous proof that the edge-based compartmental model and the message passing models are equivalent for general independent transmission and recovery processes. This implies that the new model is exact on the ensemble of configuration model networks of infinite size. For the case of Markovian transmission themessage passing model is re-parametrised into a pairwise-like model which is then used to derive many well-known pairwise models for regular networks, or when the infectious period is exponentially distributed or is of a fixed length.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Published version

Journal

Journal of Mathematical Biology

ISSN

0303-6812

Publisher

Springer Verlag

Issue

3

Volume

76

Page range

755-778

Department affiliated with

  • Mathematics Publications

Research groups affiliated with

  • Mathematical Physics Group Publications

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2017-10-12

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2017-10-12

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2017-10-12

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