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Past as prologue? The risk of adoption of chemical and biological weapons by non-state actors in the EU

journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-09, 08:08 authored by James Revill
There have been relatively few serious incidents of chemical or biological terrorism in Europe; however, there is growing concern over how non-state groups might exploit chemistry and biology for hostile purposes in the future. This article uses the historical record of past incidents of chemical and biological weapons (CBW) adoption by non-state actors to inform understandings of the current and future risks. To achieve this, the article analyses six interlinked clusters of factors that can be seen as important in assessing the risk of whether or not to adopt such weapons. These are: the perceived relative advantage of CBW and their utilities; the complexity of such weapons; their ideological compatibility; the role of organisational structures; the visibility and ‘fashionability’ of such weapons; and the wider environmental context. Drawing from past cases of CBW adoption and the present European context, an analysis of these factors suggests that sophisticated CBW with gigantic effect are possible, but unlikely; however, the adoption and use of scruffy low-level chemical weapons is a distinct possibility. Accordingly, European public health agencies need to prepare for the possibility of a variety of CBW, not all of which are likely to be weapons of “mass destruction”.

Funding

Urgency Grant: Data Capture of Syria Chemical Weapons Allegations; G1335; ESRC-ECONOMIC & SOCIAL RESEARCH COUNCIL; ES/L014505/1

Pathways towards Security: what pathways are being realised in technology infrastructure; G1107; ESRC-ECONOMIC & SOCIAL RESEARCH COUNCIL; ES/K011324/1

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Published version

Journal

European Journal of Risk Regulation

ISSN

1867-299X

Publisher

Cambridge University Press

Issue

4

Volume

8

Page range

626-642

Department affiliated with

  • SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit Publications

Research groups affiliated with

  • Harvard Sussex Program Publications

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2017-09-29

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2017-09-29

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2017-09-29

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