Selby et al 2017 Climate change and Syria. Published version.pdf (1.15 MB)
Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-09, 07:15 authored by Jan Selby, Omar S Dahi, Christiane Fröhlich, Mike HulmeFor proponents of the view that anthropogenic climate change will become a ‘threat multiplier’ for instability in the decades ahead, the Syrian civil war has become a recurring reference point, providing apparently compelling evidence that such conflict effects are already with us. According to this view, human-induced climatic change was a contributory factor in the extreme drought experienced within Syria prior to its civil war; this drought in turn led to large-scale migration; and this migration in turn exacerbated the socio-economic stresses that underpinned Syria’s descent into war. This article provides a systematic interrogation of these claims, and finds little merit to them. Amongst other things it shows that there is no clear and reliable evidence that anthropogenic climate change was a factor in Syria’s pre-civil war drought; that this drought did not cause anywhere near the scale of migration that is often alleged; and that there exists no solid evidence that drought migration pressures in Syria contributed to civil war onset. The Syria case, the article finds, does not support ‘threat multiplier’ views of the impacts of climate change; to the contrary, we conclude, policymakers, commentators and scholars alike should exercise far greater caution when drawing such linkages or when securitising climate change.
History
Publication status
- Published
File Version
- Published version
Journal
Political GeographyISSN
0962-6298Publisher
ElsevierExternal DOI
Volume
60Page range
232-244Department affiliated with
- International Relations Publications
Full text available
- Yes
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2017-07-17First Open Access (FOA) Date
2017-08-23First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2017-07-17Usage metrics
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