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Modelling and forecasting pharmaceutical life cycles: branded versus generic

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posted on 2023-06-09, 02:57 authored by Samantha Buxton, Marv Khammash, Konstantinos Nikopoulos, Philip Stern
This paper discusses modelling and forecasting pharmaceutical life cycles specifically focusing on those where sales of branded drugs decline as the prescription rate of the generic drugs increases. This is important as there are currently very few new drugs being produced; pharmaceutical companies are looking to extend the market life span of drugs already in the marketplace, and the market in the UK alone is currently worth $19843 million. Losses from pharmaceutical mismanagement can be significant and dramatic. A Bass diffusion and repeat purchase diffusion model are used to model and forecast these life cycles along with a simple naïve model, exponential smoothing and moving average models. The results show that the RPDM diffusion model is the most accurate in both modelling and forecasting branded versus generic pharmaceutical life cycles.

History

Publication status

  • Published

Presentation Type

  • paper

Event name

The Operational Research Society OR54 Annual Conference

Event location

Edinburgh, UK

Event type

conference

Event date

4-6 September 2012

Department affiliated with

  • Strategy and Marketing Publications

Full text available

  • No

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2016-09-19

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