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Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production

journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-08, 23:53 authored by Corey Lesk, Pedram RowhaniPedram Rowhani, Navin Ramankutty
In recent years, several extreme weather disasters have partially or completely damaged regional crop production. While detailed regional accounts of the effects of extreme weather disasters exist, the global scale effects of droughts, floods and extreme temperature on crop production are yet to be quantified. Here we estimate for the first time, to our knowledge, national cereal production losses across the globe resulting from reported extreme weather disasters during 1964–2007. We show that droughts and extreme heat significantly reduced national cereal production by 9–10%, whereas our analysis could not identify an effect from floods and extreme cold in the national data. Analysing the underlying processes, we find that production losses due to droughts were associated with a reduction in both harvested area and yields, whereas extreme heat mainly decreased cereal yields. Furthermore, the results highlight ~7% greater production damage from more recent droughts and 8–11% more damage in developed countries than in developing ones. Our findings may help to guide agricultural priorities in international disaster risk reduction and adaptation efforts.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Published version

Journal

Nature

ISSN

0028-0836

Publisher

Nature Publishing Group

Issue

7584

Volume

529

Page range

84-87

Department affiliated with

  • Geography Publications

Research groups affiliated with

  • Sussex Sustainability Research Programme Publications

Full text available

  • No

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2016-01-07

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2016-01-07

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