Dynamics of multi-stage infections on networks

Sherborne, N, Blyuss, K B and Kiss, I Z (2015) Dynamics of multi-stage infections on networks. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. pp. 1-25. ISSN 0092-8240

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This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a nonexponentially
distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multistage
infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard
closure, a number of important characteristics of disease dynamics are derived analytically,
including the final size of an epidemic and a threshold for epidemic outbreaks,
and it is shown how these quantities depend on disease characteristics, as well as the
number of disease stages. Stochastic simulations of dynamics on networks are performed
and compared to output of pairwise models for several realistic examples of
infectious diseases to illustrate the role played by the number of stages in the disease
dynamics. These results show that a higher number of disease stages results in faster
epidemic outbreaks with a higher peak prevalence and a larger final size of the epidemic.
The agreement between the pairwise and simulation models is excellent in the
cases we consider.

Item Type: Article
Schools and Departments: School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Mathematics
Depositing User: Neil Sherborne
Date Deposited: 29 Sep 2015 12:13
Last Modified: 14 Mar 2017 13:44
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/56913

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