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Sherborne2015_Article_DynamicsOfMulti-stageInfection.pdf (1.4 MB)

Dynamics of multi-stage infections on networks

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posted on 2023-06-15, 20:53 authored by Neil Sherborne, Konstantin BlyussKonstantin Blyuss, Istvan Kiss
This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a nonexponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multistage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard closure, a number of important characteristics of disease dynamics are derived analytically, including the final size of an epidemic and a threshold for epidemic outbreaks, and it is shown how these quantities depend on disease characteristics, as well as the number of disease stages. Stochastic simulations of dynamics on networks are performed and compared to output of pairwise models for several realistic examples of infectious diseases to illustrate the role played by the number of stages in the disease dynamics. These results show that a higher number of disease stages results in faster epidemic outbreaks with a higher peak prevalence and a larger final size of the epidemic. The agreement between the pairwise and simulation models is excellent in the cases we consider.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Published version

Journal

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology

ISSN

0092-8240

Publisher

Springer

Issue

10

Volume

77

Page range

1909-1933

Department affiliated with

  • Mathematics Publications

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2015-09-29

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2015-09-29

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2015-09-29

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