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Methods of estimating shale gas resources - Comparison, evaluation and implications

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posted on 2023-06-08, 20:39 authored by Christophe McGlade, Jamie Speirs, Steven SorrellSteven Sorrell
Estimates of technically recoverable shale gas resources remain highly uncertain, even in regions with a relatively long history of shale gas production. This paper examines the reasons for these uncertainties, focusing in particular on the methods used to derive resource estimates. Such estimates can be based upon the extrapolation of previous production experience in developed areas, or from the geological appraisal of undeveloped areas. The paper assesses the strengths and weaknesses of these methods, the level of uncertainty in the results and the implications of this for current policy debates. We conclude that there are substantial difficulties in assessing the recoverable volumes of shale gas and that current resource estimates should be treated with considerable caution. Most existing studies lack transparency or a rigorous approach to assessing uncertainty and provide estimates that are highly sensitive to key variables that are poorly defined - such as the assumed ratio of gas-in-place to recovered gas (the ‘recovery factor’) and the assumed ultimate recovery from individual wells. To illustrate the uncertainties both within and between different methodological approaches, we provide case studies of resource estimates for the Marcellus shale in the US and three basins in India.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Published version

Journal

Energy

ISSN

0360-5442

Publisher

Elsevier

Volume

59

Page range

116-125

Department affiliated with

  • SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit Publications

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2015-04-28

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2015-04-28

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2015-04-28

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