File(s) not publicly available
Economy-wide impacts of climate change: A joint analysis for sea level rise and tourism
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-08, 11:06 authored by Andrea Bigano, Francesco Bosello, Roberto Roson, Richard TolRichard TolWhile climate change impacts on human life have well defined and different origins, the interactions among the diverse impacts are not yet fully understood. Their final effects, however, especially those involving social-economic responses, are likely to play an important role. This paper is one of the first attempts to disentangle and highlight the role of these interactions. It focuses on the economic assessment of two specific climate change impacts: sea-level rise and changes in tourism flows. By using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model the two impacts categories are first analysed separately and then jointly. Considered separately, in 2050, the forecasted 25 cm. of sea level rise imply a GDP loss ranging from (-) 0.1% in South East Asia to almost no loss in Canada, while redistribution of tourism flows - which in terms of arrivals favours Western Europe, Japan, Korea and Canada and penalises all the other world regions - triggers GDP losses ranging from (-) 0.5% in Small Island States to (-) 0.0004% in Canada. GDP gainers are Australia, New Zealand, Western Europe, Middle East and South Asia. The impact of sea level rise and tourism were simulated jointly and the results compared with those of the two disjoint simulations. From a qualitative point of view, the joint effects are similar to the outcomes of the disjoint exercises; from a quantitative perspective, however, impact interaction does play a significant role. In six cases out of 16 there is a detectable (higher than 2% and peaking to 70%) difference between the sum of the outcomes in the disjoint simulation and the outcomes of the joint simulations. Moreover, the relative contribution of each single impact category has been disentangled from the final result. In the case under scrutiny, demand shocks induced by changes in tourism flows outweigh the supply-side shock induced by the loss of coastal land.
History
Publication status
- Published
Journal
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeISSN
1381-2386Publisher
Springer VerlagExternal DOI
Issue
8Volume
13Page range
765-791Department affiliated with
- Economics Publications
Full text available
- No
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2012-04-19Usage metrics
Categories
No categories selectedKeywords
Licence
Exports
RefWorks
BibTeX
Ref. manager
Endnote
DataCite
NLM
DC