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Climate change and violent conflict in Europe over the last millennium

journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-08, 11:05 authored by Richard TolRichard Tol, Sebastian Wagner
We investigate the relationship between a thousand-year history of violent conflict in Europe and various reconstructions of temperature and precipitation. We find that conflict was more intense during colder period, just like Zhang et al. (Clim Change 76:459-477, 2006) found for China. This relationship weakens in the industrialized era, and is not robust to the details of the climate reconstruction or to the sample period. As the correlation is negative and weakening, it appears that global warming would not lead to an increase in violent conflict in temperature climates.

History

Publication status

  • Published

Journal

Climatic Change

ISSN

0165-0009

Publisher

Springer Verlag

Issue

1-2

Volume

99

Page range

65-79

Department affiliated with

  • Economics Publications

Full text available

  • No

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2012-04-23

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