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Climate change and violent conflict in Europe over the last millennium
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-08, 11:05 authored by Richard TolRichard Tol, Sebastian WagnerWe investigate the relationship between a thousand-year history of violent conflict in Europe and various reconstructions of temperature and precipitation. We find that conflict was more intense during colder period, just like Zhang et al. (Clim Change 76:459-477, 2006) found for China. This relationship weakens in the industrialized era, and is not robust to the details of the climate reconstruction or to the sample period. As the correlation is negative and weakening, it appears that global warming would not lead to an increase in violent conflict in temperature climates.
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Publication status
- Published
Journal
Climatic ChangeISSN
0165-0009Publisher
Springer VerlagExternal DOI
Issue
1-2Volume
99Page range
65-79Department affiliated with
- Economics Publications
Full text available
- No
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2012-04-23Usage metrics
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