Modelling the initial spread of foot-and-mouth disease through animal movements

Green, D M, Kiss, I Z and Kao, R R (2006) Modelling the initial spread of foot-and-mouth disease through animal movements. Proceedings B: Biological Sciences, 273 (1602). 2729 - 2735. ISSN 1471-2954

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Livestock movements in Great Britain (GB) are well recorded and are a unique record of the network of connections among livestock-holding locations. These connections can be critical for disease spread, as in the 2001 epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the UK. Here, the movement data are used to construct an individual-farm-based model of the initial spread of FMD in GB and determine the susceptibility of the GB livestock industry to future outbreaks under the current legislative requirements. Transmission through movements is modelled, with additional local spread unrelated to the known movements. Simulations show that movements can result in a large nationwide epidemic, but only if cattle are heavily involved, or the epidemic occurs in late summer or early autumn. Inclusion of random local spread can considerably increase epidemic size, but has only a small impact on the spatial extent of the disease. There is a geographical bias in the epidemic size reached, with larger epidemics originating in Scotland and the north of England than elsewhere.

Item Type: Article
Schools and Departments: School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Mathematics
Depositing User: Istvan Kiss
Date Deposited: 06 Feb 2012 21:23
Last Modified: 22 May 2012 16:10
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