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Present and future evidence for evolving dark energy

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journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-08, 09:31 authored by Andrew R Liddle, Pia Mukherjee, David Parkinson, Yun Wang
We compute the Bayesian evidences for one- and two-parameter models of evolving dark energy, and compare them to the evidence for a cosmological constant, using current data from Type Ia supernova, baryon acoustic oscillations, and the cosmic microwave background. We use only distance information, ignoring dark energy perturbations. We find that, under various priors on the dark energy parameters, LambdaCDM is currently favoured as compared to the dark energy models. We consider the parameter constraints that arise under Bayesian model averaging, and discuss the implication of our results for future dark energy projects seeking to detect dark energy evolution. The model selection approach complements and extends the figure-of-merit approach of the Dark Energy Task Force in assessing future experiments, and suggests a significantly-modified interpretation of that statistic.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Published version

Journal

Physical Review D

ISSN

0556-2821

Issue

12

Volume

74

Pages

9.0

Department affiliated with

  • Physics and Astronomy Publications

Notes

Lead author, contributed much of the analysis and all the writing. First comprehensive use of multimodel Bayesian inference in cosmology, including new methods to assess expected outcome of future dark energy experiments.

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2012-02-06

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2016-03-22

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2016-11-10

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