Present and future evidence for evolving dark energy

Liddle, Andrew R, Mukherjee, Pia, Parkinson, David and Wang, Yun (2006) Present and future evidence for evolving dark energy. Physical Review D, 74 (12). ISSN 0556-2821

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We compute the Bayesian evidences for one- and two-parameter models of evolving dark energy, and compare them to the evidence for a cosmological constant, using current data from Type Ia supernova, baryon acoustic oscillations, and the cosmic microwave background. We use only distance information, ignoring dark energy perturbations. We find that, under various priors on the dark energy parameters, LambdaCDM is currently favoured as compared to the dark energy models. We consider the parameter constraints that arise under Bayesian model averaging, and discuss the implication of our results for future dark energy projects seeking to detect dark energy evolution. The model selection approach complements and extends the figure-of-merit approach of the Dark Energy Task Force in assessing future experiments, and suggests a significantly-modified interpretation of that statistic.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Lead author, contributed much of the analysis and all the writing. First comprehensive use of multimodel Bayesian inference in cosmology, including new methods to assess expected outcome of future dark energy experiments.
Schools and Departments: School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Physics and Astronomy
Depositing User: Andrew Liddle
Date Deposited: 06 Feb 2012 21:16
Last Modified: 06 Aug 2019 13:45

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