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Bayesian model selection analysis of WMAP3

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posted on 2023-06-08, 08:13 authored by David Parkinson, Pia Mukherjee, Andrew R Liddle
We present a Bayesian model selection analysis of WMAP3 data using our code CosmoNest. We focus on the density perturbation spectral index nS and the tensor-to-scalar ratio r, which define the plane of slow-roll inflationary models. We find that while the Bayesian evidence supports the conclusion that nS?1, the data are not yet powerful enough to do so at a strong or decisive level. If tensors are assumed absent, the current odds are approximately 8 to 1 in favor of nS?1 under our assumptions, when WMAP3 data is used together with external data sets. WMAP3 data on its own is unable to distinguish between the two models. Further, inclusion of r as a parameter weakens the conclusion against the Harrison–Zel’dovich case (nS=1, r=0), albeit in a prior-dependent way. In appendices we describe the CosmoNest code in detail, noting its ability to supply posterior samples as well as to accurately compute the Bayesian evidence. We make a first public release of CosmoNest, now available at www.cosmonest.org.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Published version

Journal

Physical Review D

ISSN

0556-2821

Issue

12

Volume

73

Page range

1235231-1235237

Pages

7.0

Department affiliated with

  • Physics and Astronomy Publications

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2012-02-06

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2016-03-22

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2016-11-10

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