Estimating the Poverty Impacts of a Prospective Doha Development Agenda

This paper summarises the findings from a major international research project on the poverty impacts of a potential Doha Development Agenda. It draws on an intensive analysis of the DDA Framework Agreement and associated scenarios. The implications for world markets are established using a global modelling framework, the outputs of which form the basis for a dozen country case studies of the national poverty impacts of the DDA scenarios. Liberalisation targets under the DDA have to be quite ambitious if the round is to have a measurable impact on poverty. We expect the near-term poverty impacts to be mixed; some countries experience small poverty increases and others more substantial poverty declines. On balance, poverty is reduced under the core DDA scenario, and this reduction is more pronounced in the longer run. Deeper cuts in developing country tariffs are found to make the DDA more poverty friendly. It is also clear that, in order to generate significant poverty reductions in the near term, complementary domestic reforms are required to enable households to take advantage of the new market opportunities. Over the long run, sustained poverty reduction depends on stimulating economic growth, which suggests that trade reforms must go beyond tariffs and subsidies, also addressing barriers to services trade and investment.