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Oil futures: A comparison of global supply forecasts
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-08, 00:19 authored by Steven SorrellSteven Sorrell, Richard Miller, Roger Bentley, Jamie SpeirsThis paper compares and evaluates fourteen contemporary forecasts of global supply of conventional oil and provides some observations on their relative plausibility. Despite the wide range of modelling approaches used and multiplicity of assumptions made, it is shown that forecasts can be usefully compared along two dimensions, namely: shape of future production profile and assumed or implied ultimately recoverable resource of conventional oil. Other differences between forecasts are either secondary or are components of these two parameters. The paper shows how large differences in the assumed size of the resource make relatively little difference to the timing of a global peak in conventional oil production. It also examines the impact of rates of discovery, reserves growth and depletion on the forecast date of peak and shows how forecasts that delay this peak until beyond 2030 rest on assumptions that are at best optimistic and at worst implausible.
History
Publication status
- Published
Journal
Energy PolicyISSN
0301-4215Publisher
ElsevierExternal DOI
Issue
9Volume
38Page range
4990-5003Pages
14.0Department affiliated with
- SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit Publications
Full text available
- No
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2012-02-06Usage metrics
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