VERs and Expectations: Extensions and Evidence

Winters, L. Alan (1994) VERs and Expectations: Extensions and Evidence. Economic Journal, 104 (422). pp. 113-123. ISSN 00130133

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This paper analyses the effects of an expected future voluntary export restraint on the level of firms' current exports to a market. The traditional result that current exports increase is shown to depend on the degree of collusion in the exporting industry and the anticipated restrictiveness of the VER. The former relationship is tested by reference to the effect of EC import surveillance on its imports. Surveillance is argued to indicate an increased probability of a VER in the future, and it is found that while competitive industries respond to it by increasing exports to the EC, less competitive ones curtail exports. This constitutes one of the few empirical tests of the strategic part of strategic trade policy.

Item Type: Article
Schools and Departments: University of Sussex Business School > Economics
Depositing User: L.Alan Winters
Date Deposited: 06 Feb 2012 19:45
Last Modified: 28 Jun 2012 09:00
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