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VERs and Expectations: Extensions and Evidence

journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-07, 21:28 authored by L. Alan WintersL. Alan Winters
This paper analyzes the effects of an expected future voluntary export restraint on the level of firms' current exports to a market. The traditional result that current exports increase is shown to depend on the degree of collusion in the exporting industry and the anticipated restrictiveness of the VER. The former relationship is tested by reference to the effect of EC import surveillance on its imports. Surveillance is argued to indicate an increased probability of a VER in the future, and it is found that while competitive industries respond to it by increasing exports to the EC, less competitive ones curtail exports. This constitutes one of the few empirical tests of the strategic part of strategic trade policy. Copyright 1994 by Royal Economic Society.

History

Publication status

  • Published

Journal

Economic Journal

ISSN

1468-0297

Publisher

Wiley-Blackwell

Volume

104

Page range

113-123

Pages

11.0

Department affiliated with

  • Economics Publications

Full text available

  • No

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2012-02-06

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