1-s2.0-S0954349X23000619-main.pdf (1.01 MB)
Does exporting cause productivity growth? Evidence from Chilean firms
Version 2 2023-10-02, 08:19
Version 1 2023-06-10, 06:57
journal contribution
posted on 2023-10-02, 08:19 authored by Tommaso CiarliTommaso Ciarli, Alex Coad, Alessio MonetaDoes exporting increase firm productivity, or are increased export sales caused by the firm’s ability to increase its productivity? This paper provides new empirical evidence on the causal relation between trade and productivity, adopting a structural vector autoregressive analysis combined with identification algorithms from the machine learning literature. We focus on a well-studied country (Chile) and on already-exporting firms (intensive margin). We identify the contemporaneous and lagged causal structure between firm productivity and export growth using two different machine learning algorithms based on independent components analysis (ICA), which exploit the non-Gaussian distribution of the data to recover the independent structural shocks that drive the observed variables. Our findings show that, for Chilean firms, productivity growth causes export growth in the same year, but that the reverse does not apply. Export growth also has no causal effect on TFP growth in subsequent years. To increase sales in the foreign market, firms should first also increase productivity. The increased presence in the foreign market does not contribute to such productivity growth.
History
Publication status
- Published
File Version
- Published version
Journal
Structural Change and Economic DynamicsISSN
0954-349XPublisher
ElsevierPublisher URL
External DOI
Volume
66Page range
228-239Department affiliated with
- SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit Publications
Full text available
- Yes
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2023-05-02First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2023-05-04Usage metrics
Categories
No categories selectedKeywords
Licence
Exports
RefWorks
BibTeX
Ref. manager
Endnote
DataCite
NLM
DC