A multilevel analysis of educational transition rates at secondary level in sub-Saharan Africa

Latest estimates by UNESCO show that, in 2022, only 46%-28% of students complete lower and upper secondary in the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region. One of the reasons behind low completion rates is the poor transition across secondary school due to the significant impact of factors at the individual, household and community levels shaping demand and supply constraints. In this paper, by using two transition rates for 29 SSA countries (i.e., from lower to upper secondary, and a newly defined indicator: transition from upper secondary to higher education) for 54,367 (21,367) individuals from 11,997 (8,029) communities, we employ a three-level multilevel logit to investigate the key determinants for transitions and their variability across countries and communities, and whether less wealth inequality is at odds with increasing countries and communities performances. We find that variation on transition rates is 40%-50% larger in communities within countries than in countries themselves and heterogeneity is larger for upper secondary transition. Leading sources of inequality are wealth, gender and the community prevalence of early marriage. We also find that the trade-off equity and performance does not hold across countries, but it does at the community level where communities with stronger rates of transitions are more unequal. Our analysis suggests policies to improve SSA youth chances to move-up to the next level at secondary, starting for narrowing heterogeneity across communities, boosting chances for the poorest groups and female youth living in communities with weak social norms, and measures to diminish community wealth impacts on their transition performance.