Operationalising branching points for transition: mapping policy and pathways for heat decarbonisation in the United Kingdom

This paper develops the use of the branching point concept as a tool to support key decisions for reorienting systems for sustainability and applies this to the case of alternative pathways for heat decarbonisation in the UK. In this approach, a pathway is seen as arising from accumulation of many specific decisions which create momentum in a particular direction and so reinforce the irreversibility of the pathway. Branching points are key decision-points connected to pathways of system development, they “determine whether and in what ways the pathway is followed” [1]. However branching points are not pre-defined forks in the road, and in uncertain and complex settings, recognising and shaping potential branching points may be part of supporting and enabling transitions to sustainability. This paper demonstrates the potential to develop branching point analysis into a tool to support and help structure policy decisions for transition. A three-step process to analyse connections between transition pathways is proposed and applied to a case study of UK heat decarbonisation: a transition-in-progress. Step 1: identifying relevant socio-technical pathways and their system and development characteristics; Step 2 mapping potential connection points between pathways; Step 3 unpacking these as spaces of co-ordination and competition between the pathways. This analysis highlights and responds to a gap between a policy approach framed by a sector-wide target and the development of distinct socio-technical responses. This research develops a strategic policy approach, for supporting developments for decarbonisation focused on potential connection points between pathways of development.