The decade of Realignment: explaining political change in Britain 2010-2021

This thesis takes a broad definition of realignment where new issue, electoral change and party competition change are all investigated before confirming if a realignment has taken place. This thesis uses the British Election Study (BES) dataset, aggregate election results, polling, party manifesto and membership data to analyse the extent to which a full realignment occurred from 2010 to 2019. Further, it examines the extent realignment patterns endured to the 2021 local election, thus establishing the realignment has endured since 2019. This chapter explores trends in public opinion leading up to Brexit, volatility levels leading into the 2019 election, aggregate results of the 2019 election, individual voter trends in the 2019 election, trends in voter flows and party programme trends. The thesis finds that a full realignment developed throughout the 2010s and fully materialised in the 2019 election. The thesis concludes this as it finds high volatility levels, clear trends in voter switching (both at an aggregate and individual level) and party manifestos changing to meet these new voter demands. These realignment patterns were then sustained throughout the pandemic and were again displayed in the 2021 local elections. This thesis’ conclusion has implications in understanding how parties are competing for votes within British politics, particularly for Conservative and Labour in England and Wales. These findings also have implications for understanding a key moment in British political history as it explains the events of Brexit and the 2017 and 2019 general elections.