Drivers and impacts of structural change in Sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from households and firms

The main objective of this PhD thesis is to understand the contribution of the micro level dynamics of productive activities on structural change in Sub-Saharan Africa. The thesis combines individual, household, firm, and geospatial data from Ghana, Nigeria and Rwanda, employing quantitative methods from economics, geography and complexity science.

In the first chapter I use data from the Ghana industrial census, household surveys and exports to compare different perspectives on how its sectoral composition has changed between 2005 and 2014. In the second chapter, I investigate how such different patterns of structural change may be related. Using the industry census data from Ghana, I study the patterns of co-location of informal and formal economic activities across industries, testing different channels through which informal activities can contribute to structural change.

In the third chapter I explore how ICT can drive structural change in the informal sector. I use panel data on Nigerian non-farming household enterprises and mobile coverage data at district level (2010-2015) to measure the impact of mobile internet adoption on firms’ performance and industrial composition, and the extent to which it can foster economic inclusion.

In the fourth chapter, I further explore the impact of ICT on changes in the labour market. Using data on the mobile internet roll-out in Rwandan districts combined with Labour Force and Census data (2002-2019), I estimate the impact of ICT diffusion on employment size and skill composition.

The findings of the four chapters reveal that informal economic activities are heterogeneous and interact with the economy as a whole, contributing significantly to the economic transformation of low-income countries (Chapters 1-2). Policies can also influence the pattern of structural change: for instance, ICT diffusion can benefit informal firms and labour markets, but can also lead to more inequality, further requiring policy interventions to foster processes of inclusive structural change (Chapters 3-4).