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Joel et al (2020). Machine Learning Uncovers the Most Robust Self-Report Predictors of Relationship Quality Across 43 Longitudinal Couples Studies. Accepted Version.[12].pdf (1.18 MB)

Machine learning uncovers the most robust self-report predictors of relationship quality across 43 longitudinal couples studies

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posted on 2023-06-10, 05:44 authored by Samantha Joel, Paul W Eastwick, Colleen J Allison, Ximena B Arriaga, Zachary G Baker, Eran Bar-Kalifa, Sophie Bergeron, Gurit E Birnbaum, Rebecca L Brock, Claudia C Brumbaugh, Cheryl L Carmichael, Serena Chen, Jennifer Clarke, Rebecca J Cobb, Mariko VissermanMariko Visserman, others
Given the powerful implications of relationship quality for health and well-being, a central mission of relationship science is explaining why some romantic relationships thrive more than others. This large-scale project used machine learning (i.e., Random Forests) to 1) quantify the extent to which relationship quality is predictable and 2) identify which constructs reliably predict relationship quality. Across 43 dyadic longitudinal datasets from 29 laboratories, the top relationship-specific predictors of relationship quality were perceived-partner commitment, appreciation, sexual satisfaction, perceived-partner satisfaction, and conflict. The top individual-difference predictors were life satisfaction, negative affect, depression, attachment avoidance, and attachment anxiety. Overall, relationship-specific variables predicted up to 45% of variance at baseline, and up to 18% of variance at the end of each study. Individual differences also performed well (21% and 12%, respectively). Actor-reported variables (i.e., own relationship-specific and individual-difference variables) predicted two to four times more variance than partner-reported variables (i.e., the partner’s ratings on those variables). Importantly, individual differences and partner reports had no predictive effects beyond actor-reported relationship-specific variables alone. These findings imply that the sum of all individual differences and partner experiences exert their influence on relationship quality via a person’s own relationship-specific experiences, and effects due to moderation by individual differences and moderation by partner-reports may be quite small. Finally, relationship-quality change (i.e., increases or decreases in relationship quality over the course of a study) was largely unpredictable from any combination of self-report variables. This collective effort should guide future models of relationships.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Accepted version

Journal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

ISSN

0027-8424

Publisher

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Issue

32

Volume

117

Page range

19061-19071

Department affiliated with

  • Psychology Publications

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2023-01-03

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2023-02-10

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2023-02-10

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