Geostatistical modelling of the distribution, risk and burden of podoconiosis in Kenya

Kassaye, Kebede, Sultani, Hadley Matendechero, Okoyo, Collins, Omondi, Wyckliff P, Ngere, Isaac, Newport, Melanie and Cano, Jorge (2022) Geostatistical modelling of the distribution, risk and burden of podoconiosis in Kenya. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. pp. 1-11. ISSN 0035-9203

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Abstract

Background
Understanding and accurately predicting the environmental limits, population at risk and burden of podoconiosis are critical for delivering targeted and equitable prevention and treatment services, planning control and elimination programs, and implementing tailored case finding and surveillance activities.

Methods
This is secondary analysis of nationwide podoconiosis mapping survey in Kenya. We combined national representative prevalence survey data of podoconiosis with climate and environmental data, overplayed with population figures in a geostatistical modelling framework, to predict the environmental suitability, population living in at-risk areas and number of cases of podoconiosis in Kenya.

Results
In 2020, the number of people living with podoconiosis in Kenya was estimated to be 9,344 people (95% uncertainty interval, 4,222 to 17,962). The distribution of podoconiosis varies by geography and three regions (Eastern, Nyanza and Western) represent over 90% of the absolute number of cases. High environmental suitability for podoconiosis was predicted in four regions of Kenya (Coastal, Eastern, Nyanza and Western). In total, 2.2 million people live in at-risk areas and 4.2% of the total landmass of Kenya is environmentally predisposed for podoconiosis.

Conclusions
The burden of podoconiosis is relatively low in Kenya and is mostly restricted to certain small geographical areas. Our results help guide targeted prevention and treatment approaches through local planning, spatial targeting and tailored surveillance activities.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: Geostatistical modelling, podoconiosis, risk, spatial analysis, Kenya
Schools and Departments: Brighton and Sussex Medical School > Brighton and Sussex Medical School
SWORD Depositor: Mx Elements Account
Depositing User: Mx Elements Account
Date Deposited: 05 Sep 2022 08:27
Last Modified: 23 Sep 2022 13:45
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/107680

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