trac092.pdf (1.48 MB)
Geostatistical modelling of the distribution, risk and burden of podoconiosis in Kenya
Version 2 2023-06-12, 07:49
Version 1 2023-06-10, 04:35
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-12, 07:49 authored by Kebede Kassaye, Hadley Matendechero Sultani, Collins Okoyo, Wyckliff P Omondi, Isaac Ngere, Melanie NewportMelanie Newport, Jorge CanoBackground Understanding and accurately predicting the environmental limits, population at risk and burden of podoconiosis are critical for delivering targeted and equitable prevention and treatment services, planning control and elimination programs, and implementing tailored case finding and surveillance activities. Methods This is secondary analysis of nationwide podoconiosis mapping survey in Kenya. We combined national representative prevalence survey data of podoconiosis with climate and environmental data, overplayed with population figures in a geostatistical modelling framework, to predict the environmental suitability, population living in at-risk areas and number of cases of podoconiosis in Kenya. Results In 2020, the number of people living with podoconiosis in Kenya was estimated to be 9,344 people (95%?uncertainty interval, 4,222 to 17,962). The distribution of podoconiosis varies by geography and three regions (Eastern, Nyanza and Western) represent over 90% of the absolute number of cases. High environmental suitability for podoconiosis was predicted in four regions of Kenya (Coastal, Eastern, Nyanza and Western). In total, 2.2 million people live in at-risk areas and 4.2% of the total landmass of Kenya is environmentally predisposed for podoconiosis. Conclusions The burden of podoconiosis is relatively low in Kenya and is mostly restricted to certain small geographical areas. Our results help guide targeted prevention and treatment approaches through local planning, spatial targeting and tailored surveillance activities.
History
Publication status
- Published
File Version
- Published version
Journal
Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and HygieneISSN
0035-9203Publisher
Oxford University PressExternal DOI
Page range
1-11Department affiliated with
- BSMS Publications
Full text available
- No
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2022-09-05First Open Access (FOA) Date
2022-09-23First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2022-09-02Usage metrics
Categories
No categories selectedLicence
Exports
RefWorks
BibTeX
Ref. manager
Endnote
DataCite
NLM
DC