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Geostatistical modelling of the distribution, risk and burden of podoconiosis in Kenya

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Version 2 2023-06-12, 07:49
Version 1 2023-06-10, 04:35
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-12, 07:49 authored by Kebede Kassaye, Hadley Matendechero Sultani, Collins Okoyo, Wyckliff P Omondi, Isaac Ngere, Melanie NewportMelanie Newport, Jorge Cano
Background Understanding and accurately predicting the environmental limits, population at risk and burden of podoconiosis are critical for delivering targeted and equitable prevention and treatment services, planning control and elimination programs, and implementing tailored case finding and surveillance activities. Methods This is secondary analysis of nationwide podoconiosis mapping survey in Kenya. We combined national representative prevalence survey data of podoconiosis with climate and environmental data, overplayed with population figures in a geostatistical modelling framework, to predict the environmental suitability, population living in at-risk areas and number of cases of podoconiosis in Kenya. Results In 2020, the number of people living with podoconiosis in Kenya was estimated to be 9,344 people (95%?uncertainty interval, 4,222 to 17,962). The distribution of podoconiosis varies by geography and three regions (Eastern, Nyanza and Western) represent over 90% of the absolute number of cases. High environmental suitability for podoconiosis was predicted in four regions of Kenya (Coastal, Eastern, Nyanza and Western). In total, 2.2 million people live in at-risk areas and 4.2% of the total landmass of Kenya is environmentally predisposed for podoconiosis. Conclusions The burden of podoconiosis is relatively low in Kenya and is mostly restricted to certain small geographical areas. Our results help guide targeted prevention and treatment approaches through local planning, spatial targeting and tailored surveillance activities.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Published version

Journal

Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

ISSN

0035-9203

Publisher

Oxford University Press

Page range

1-11

Department affiliated with

  • BSMS Publications

Full text available

  • No

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2022-09-05

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2022-09-23

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2022-09-02

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