Out of the frying pan, into the fire: the green energy transition, resource independence, and the war in Ukraine

We ask how the war in Ukraine is likely to affect the green energy transition and its changing resource requirements in the longer term, given the resource endowments of Russia and Ukraine. We argue that the invasion of Ukraine complicates Europe’s green energy transition in the short term and may result in a new form of dependency on Russia, if Russia annexes Ukraine or installs a sympathetic government. The worldwide transition to green energy will disturb existing power relations and geopolitical equilibria and may be associated with rising geopolitical tensions with this war being a potential forebearer of what lies ahead.