Should I stay or should I go: South Indian artisanal ?shers’ precarious livelihoods and their engagement with categorical ocean forecasts

Ocean State Forecasts contribute to safe and sustainable ?shing in India, but their usage among artisanal ?shers is often limited. Our research in Thiruvananthapuram district in the southern Indian state of Kerala tested forecast quality and value and how ?shers engage with forecasts. In two ?shing villages, we veri?ed forecast accuracy, skill, and reliability by comparing forecasts with observations during the 2018 monsoon season (June–September; n 5 122). We assessed forecast value by analyzing ?shers’ perceptions of weather and risks and the way they used forecasts based on 8 focus group discussions, 20 interviews, conversations, and logs of 10 ?shing boats. We ?nd that while forecasts are mostly accurate, inadequate forecasting of unusual events (e.g., wind .45 km h21) and frequent ?shing restrictions (n 5 32) undermine their value. Fishers seek more localized and detailed forecasts, but they do not always use them. Weather forecasts are just one of the tools artisanal ?shers deploy, used not simply to decide as to whether to go to sea but also to manage potential risks, allowing them to prepare for ?shing under hazardous conditions. Their decisions are also based on the availability of ?sh and their economic needs. From our ?ndings, we suggest that political, economic, and social marginality of south Indian ?shers in?uences their perceptions and responses to weather-related risks. Therefore, improving forecast usage requires not only better forecast skill and wide dissemination of tailor-made weather information, but also better appreciation of risk cultures and the livelihood imperatives of artisanal ?shing communities.